Franklin, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

065
FXUS63 KIND 271007
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
607 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected again today. Some may
produce very heavy rain.

- Dangerous heat continues into early next week with additional days
of greater than 100 degree heat indices likely, especially Monday
through Wednesday

- More widespread thunderstorms expected for the middle of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows Indiana caught between
strong high pressure over the southeastern states, and weaker low
pressure centered over the Dakotas. This was resulting in a very
warm and humid southerly flow across Central Indiana. Dew points
across Central Indiana remained in the mid to upper 70s. Aloft a
large upper high remained in place over the deep south. This also
was controlling Indiana`s weather, steering any forcing dynamics well
to the north across the Great Lakes.

A convective cluster was found near St. Louis, and was decaying as
it drifted east. At this time HRRR fails to bring in any of this
cluster to Central Indiana.

Today...

Another similar weather day will be in store as we have seen the
past few days. The hot and humid air mass remains in place across
Central Indiana. Forecast soundings this afternoon once again show
steep lapse rates with CAPE over 2600 J/KG and pwats very high, over
2.2 inches. CAMS once again shows convective development this
afternoon as diurnal heating is the trigger. The HRRR shows a window
of 16Z to 22Z for convective development across Central Indiana.
Thus just as we have seen on the past few days, chances for
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is high, but
confidence for specific locations is much less so. The previous
boundary that has been lingering across the area has become much
less defined or perhaps dissolved at this point. Thus will try and
aim for a dry morning and again ramp up chances in the afternoon as
heating maxes out.

Will keep highs close to persistence due to the little change in air
mass. A heat advisory may still be needed across southern parts of
the forecast area, where temps could be highest.

Tonight...

Again, overall little change is expected tonight. The deep and broad
upper high pressure system will continue to dominate our weather,
steering any forcing dynamics well to the north. Evening convection
should slowly deteriorate as heating is lost, leading to another warm
and humid night. Overnight convection cannot be ruled out
completely, as that has been a signature of the past few days, but
no strong signal is present for this. Again, lows in the middle 70s
will be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

For the first part of the long term, deep upper ridging will settle
in across the Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys, leading to hot
and humid conditions through midweek. Diurnally driven isolated
showers and storms will be possible the first part of the period,
with the ridging at least acting to limit storm coverage. Additional
heat headlines are likely for the start of the week as peak heat
indices will be in the 105 to 110 range.

By Wednesday, the ridge should flatten out while a cold front
extending off of an upper low over Hudson Bay drops into the region.
This front will bring the best chances for showers and storms during
the long term. While some timing differences remain within the
extended model guidance, a more pronounced threat for convection and
possibly a more organized risk for severe weather could impact the
region first Wednesday afternoon and night across the northern half
of the forecast area gradually transitioning south Thursday.
Damaging winds are again the likely primary concern based on model
soundings, with torrential rainfall and localized flooding as well
with PWATs at or just above 2 inches pooling immediately ahead of
the front.

Lingering storms will be possible through Thursday, but once the
boundary clears, much cooler as well as drier air will settle into
the region for at least a few days, providing a welcome break from
the heat. Confidence is growing in highs in the 70s for most areas
late week with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 607 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Impacts:

- High confidence for scattered thunderstorms today.
- Low confidence on specific locations and timing.
- Scattered convection this afternoon and evening, dissipating 01Z-
03Z

Discussion:

Little overall change to the ongoing TAF`s. Convection over IL and
MO as expected continues to dissipate upon approach to Central
Indiana.

Again, very limited change in the overall air mass and weather
situation across Central Indiana. As we have seen the past few days,
daily diurnal heating will lead to thunderstorm development across
Central Indiana mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Little overall change remains within the column, as it continues to
show steep lapse rates, abundant CAPE and high pwats.

Confidence is high for more showers and storms today, but confidence
is low for specific timing and locations. Thus a large window of
VCTS has been used for now. HRRR continues to suggest scattered TSRA
developing between 16Z and 01Z, with somewhat haphazard locations Any
TSRA that does strike a TAF site may produce brief MVFR to IFR
conditions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma